ENBIS-13 in Ankara

15 – 19 September 2013 Abstract submission: 5 February – 5 June 2013

Parameter Estimation in Differential Equation Networks

16 September 2013, 14:45 – 15:05


Submitted by
Dirk Surmann
Dirk Surmann (TU Dortmund, Fakultät Statistik), Sebastian Krey (TU Dortmund, Fakultät Statistik), Uwe Ligges (TU Dortmund, Fakultät Statistik), Claus Weihs (TU Dortmund, Fakultät Statistik)
The European electrical transmission system is operated increasingly close to its operational limits due to market integration, energy trading and the increased feed-in by renewable energies. For this reason it is necessary to analyse that part of energy that permanently oscillates through the electrical transmission system with a low frequency. These so called Low Frequency Oscillations are described and analysed within a smaller electrical system, the New England Test System, which guarantees a convenient handling. The analysis results in a new model which describes each node of the transmission system over mechanical harmonic oscillators. As in a true transmission system, the harmonic oscillators are connected over mechanical components according to the transmission lines of the electrical system. A simpler model allows faster predictions for the behaviour of the Low Frequency Oscillation if the topology of the network changes. Furthermore, a simple model can simulate much bigger networks at a fraction of time.

All parameters of the model which bases on a system of differential equations are estimated from noisy data. The data is generated by a much more complex simulation system used at the Institute of Energy Systems, Energy Efficiency and Energy Economics of TU Dortmund University. The data is called noisy, because the simpler model will not describe all information from the energy simulation software. The talk works out the quality of the mechanical harmonic oscillator approach with respect to the complex energy simulation software.

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