ENBIS-14 in Linz

21 – 25 September 2014; Johannes Kepler University, Linz, Austria Abstract submission: 23 January – 22 June 2014

ENBIS Challenge Session by JMP

23 September 2014, 18:15 – 18:45

2014 ENBIS Challenge by JMP

ENBIS, in cooperation with JMP, is inviting students and young professionals interested in business and industrial statistics, and everybody who likes turning data into knowledge, to take part in the 2014 ENBIS Challenge by JMP.

The 2014 ENBIS Challenge by JMP is based on the UK Nationwide Consumer Confidence Index. This index was first used by the Nationwide Building Society (note that a building society is like a bank) in May 2004. The data was last collected in May 2012. The Challenge participants have access to the whole data set and also to a subset which shows the full data collection method. With the 2008 financial crisis, the dataset covers an interesting period of recent history in the UK, and in fact the whole world.

There are four indices of consumer confidence in the attached Excel file's sheet Weighted Indices. Challenge participants should centre their analysis on these indices, using all other data in the Excel file as a background. Only the data provided in the framework of the 2014 ENBIS Challenge should be used to answer the following questions:

  1. Is consumer confidence linked to months in the year, for example, is there a holiday effect in August or December?
  2. At what date did the crisis begin?
  3. When did the first signs of the crisis show?
  4. At what point in time do consumers start to think the situation is improving whereas in reality the situation is not improving?
  5. Can we predict any of the indicators, or aspects of their performance, into the future?

Also: Create the best chart or assembly of muultiple charts which separates what is common in the evolution of the four indices and what distinguishes them.

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