Free ENBIS webinar by Sam Savage: Probability Management, a Cure for the Flaw of Averages31 January 2014; 15:00 – 17:00; Webinar
Sam Savage will present his Arithmetic of Uncertainty.
The Flaw of Averages is a set of systematic errors that occur when single "average" numbers are substituted for probability distributions. It encompasses problems that occur by ignoring the Central Limit Theorem, Statistical Dependence, and Jensen's Inequality. The discipline of Probability Management provides a path to curing the Flaw of Averages by representing distributions as vectors of realizations called SIPs. Performing calculations with SIPs is known as SIPmath, and it is actionable, additive, and auditable, and may be used to aggregate uncertainty across platforms, across the enterprise. In particular, it may be performed in Microsoft Excel without add-ins or macros. Visit the SIPmath page of the non-profit ProbabilityManagement.org to learn more.