ENBIS-17 in Naples9 – 14 September 2017; Naples (Italy) Abstract submission: 21 November 2016 – 10 May 2017
The following abstracts have been accepted for this event:
A Research Framework Based on Modeling and Simulation for Expected Net Benefits and Making Decisions on Willingness to Pay per Health Gain when Conducting Randomized Clinical Trials
Authors: Ismail Abbas (Universitat Politecnica de Catalunya)
Primary area of focus / application:
Keywords: Clinical trials, Expected net benefits, Statistics, Simulation
Submitted at 16-Apr-2017 23:59 by Ismail Abbas
Accepted (view paper)
Methods: The framework considers two-stages modeling and simulation with prior information of a clinical trial. The first-stage calculates sample size and power for testing a primary hypothesis of the trial. Giving the resulting power and sample size, the hypothesis of ENB is tested to make decision on power and willingness to pay per health gain.
Results: The framework is populated with a clinical trial data on benefits including efficacy, effectiveness and health care cost, combined with an assumption on correlated distributions, market exclusivity period and trial cost. The trial compares the magnetic resonance imaging-MRI with computerized axial tomography scanner-CT interventions in the diagnostic of acute ischemic stroke, assessing that CT is the dominant intervention by means of cost-effectiveness analysis. The ENB is €26M for 0.8 (80%) of power, at which €41000 should be attached per unit of health benefits. Sensitivity-analyses results and optimal ENB for a given willingness to pay will also be presented.
Discussion and conclusions: Simulation modeling is useful when making decision on a reasonable willingness to pay per health gain for randomized clinical trials that incorporate expected net benefits analysis. Nonetheless, the framework might be considered as a base for further developments and applications.
Optimal Design of Xbar Control Charts under Bathtub-shaped Shock Models with Application of Total Time on Test Plot
Authors: Shabnam Fani (Allameh Tabataba'i University), Mojtaba A. Pasha (Allameh Tabataba'i University), Mohammad B. Moghadam (Allameh Tabataba'i University)
Primary area of focus / application: Quality
Secondary area of focus / application: Reliability
Keywords: Control chart design, Process failure mechanism, Bathtub-shaped hazard rate, Total time on test plot, Integrated hazard over sampling intervals
Submitted at 17-Apr-2017 09:44 by Shabnam Fani
Bayesian Adaptive Planning in Type II Step-Stress Accelerated Life Tests with Multiple Steps
Authors: Masakatsu Onoda (Tokyo University of Science), Seiichi Yasui (Tokyo University of Science)
Primary area of focus / application: Reliability
Keywords: Bayesian estimation, Inverse power law, Bayesian decision making, Weibull distribution, Asymmetry absolute loss
Submitted at 17-Apr-2017 13:55 by Seiichi Yasui
Accepted (view paper)
We propose type II step-stress accelerated life tests with multiple steps, in which the stress level for each step is adaptively determined by Bayesian estimation of the lifetime distribution based on failure times previously obtained during the life test. The adaptive determination of stress levels makes it possible to control the probability that some items to be tested in a step fail within minimum unit of observational time after changing stress levels.
In this paper, it is assumed that lifetimes are distributed according to the Weibull distribution. We deal with some asymmetric absolute loss functions in Bayesian decision making to control the probability of multiple failures at changing stress levels. The estimation accuracy of parameters in the inverse power law is evaluated through Monte Carlo methods.
Multi-Factor Online Testing
Authors: David Steinberg (Tel Aviv University), Tamar Haizler (Tel Aviv University)
Primary area of focus / application: Design and analysis of experiments
Secondary area of focus / application: Business
Keywords: DoE, A/B testing, Click-through rate, Factorial experiments, Thompson sampling, Bandit methods
Submitted at 17-Apr-2017 15:40 by David Steinberg
Accepted (view paper)
A Generalized Maximum Entropy Approach for Analyzing Unreplicated Factorial Designs
Authors: Inara Francoyse de S. Pereira (Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte), Carla A. Vivacqua (Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte), Andre Luis S. de Pinho (Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte)
Primary area of focus / application: Other: DOE and statistical process monitoring in South America
Secondary area of focus / application: Design and analysis of experiments
Keywords: Cost of experimentation, Design of Experiments, Fractional factorial design, Normal probability plot, Ordinary least squares, Replication, Uncertainty
Submitted at 17-Apr-2017 16:16 by Carla Vivacqua
Anomaly Detection in Maritime Data Streams
Authors: Ingrid Kristine Glad (University of Oslo), Andreas Brandsæter (University of Oslo/DNV-GL), Martin Tveten (University of Oslo)
Primary area of focus / application: Other: Novel methods for industrial data streams
Keywords: Sequential testing, Multiple sensors, Sparsity, Anomaly detection
Submitted at 17-Apr-2017 23:07 by Ingrid Kristine Glad
In order to be fed into (sequential) tests for anomaly detection, such data streams are first taken through a data driven, nonparametric method for signal reconstruction known as Auto Associative Kernel Regression (AAKR). Streams of residuals (observed - reconstructed) are then monitored successively. We compare the classical univariate Sequential Probability Ratio Test (SPRT) with more recent extensions to multivariate (and possibly high dimensional) procedures for sequential detection of changes in mean and/or variance and covariance. These sequential tests are also compared to other change point detection procedures, with the aim of detecting changes as soon as possible, while controlling the amount of false alarms.