ENBIS-20 Online Conference28 September – 1 October 2020; Online
George Box Award30 September 2020, 15:15 – 16:00
GEORGE BOX MEDAL
SEASONAL WARRANTY PREDICTION BASED ON RECURRENT EVENT DATA
William Q. Meeker, PhD, Professor of Statistics and Distinguished Professor of Liberal Arts and Sciences at Iowa State University, USA, a past Editor of Technometrics, ASQ Shewhart Medal and ASA’s Deming Lecture Award winner.
Warranty return data from repairable systems, such as home appliances, lawn mowers, computers, and automobiles, result in recurrent event data. The non-homogeneous Poisson process (NHPP) model is used widely to describe such data. Seasonality in the repair frequencies and other variabilities, however, complicate the modeling of recurrent event data. Not much work has been done to address the seasonality, and this paper provides a general approach for the application of NHPP models with dynamic covariates to predict seasonal warranty returns. The methods presented here, however, can be applied to other applications that result in seasonal recurrent event data. A hierarchical clustering method is used to stratify the population into groups that are more homogeneous than the overall population. The stratification facilitates modeling the recurrent event data with both time-varying and time-constant covariates. We demonstrate and validate the models using warranty claims data for two different types of products. The results show that our approach provides important improvements in the predictive power of monthly events compared with models that do not take the seasonality and covariates into account. This talk is based on joint work with Qianqian Shan (Amazon) and Yili Hong (Virginia Tech).
Dr. William Q. Meeker is Professor of Statistics and Distinguished Professor of Liberal Arts and Sciences at Iowa State University. He has more than 40 years of experience working in the application of statistical methods to engineering applications including reliability and nondestructive evaluation. He has done research and consulted extensively on problems in reliability data analysis, warranty analysis, experimental design, accelerated testing, nondestructive evaluation, and statistical computing. His practical experience includes numerous long-term visits to AT&T Bell Laboratories, General Electric Global Research, and Los Alamos National Laboratory. He is a Fellow of the American Statistical Association (ASA), the American Society for Quality (ASQ), and the American Association for the Advancement of Science, and a past Editor of Technometrics. He is co-author of the books Statistical Methods for Reliability Data with Luis Escobar (1998), the second edition of Statistical Intervals with Luis Escobar and Gerald Hahn (2017), 14 book chapters, and many publications in the engineering and statistical literature. He has won numerous awards for his research and contributions to the statistical and engineering professions including the ASQ Shewhart Medal and ASA’s Deming Lecture Award.